Kennesaw State MBB 2021-22 Preview and Opinions

The 2021-2022 Owls team returns all key contributors from last season, losing only CG Jamie Lewis and F/C Antonio Spencer, two minimally used players who were brought in by previous head coach Al Skinner.

2019-20 was the first year of a four year contract for Head Coach Amir Abdur-Rahim (AAR). Due to not being able to bring in many of his own players, the results on the court were not what anybody wanted, going 1-28 and winless in conference play.

Let's fast forward to 2020-21, the pandemic year. Most of the players on the team were brought in by AAR, but many of the hyped players were true freshman and not ready to contribute due to the pandemic and youth.

Last season, KSU went 5-19 overall and 2-13 in conference, and the 2 conference wins were the only D1 wins of the year's in the shortened schedule. Personally, I was disappointed in how the year went. Due to the past decade or more of losing basketball, I think I lost a bit of perspective, and questioned the coaching staff publicly on social media. Reflecting back, I personally was too impatient, and didn't fully consider the ramifications of the COVID restrictions on practice, routine, etc. While all of the teams in the country were in fact going through the same rules and inconveniences with the pandemic, some teams were likely affected more than others, and a fairly young KSU team could have been one. I will give the benefit of the doubt here going forward.

Admittedly, all of the losing got to me, and my biggest concern was AAR losing the team and that his blue chip freshmen would be second guessing things with the newly loosened transfer rules that allow kids to play right away. Luckily, none of that ended up happening, and all of AAR's hand-selected players, including walk-ons, return this year.

Things picked up late last season and Kennesaw State won 2 of the last 5 games, defeating FGCU and Stetson. They also only lost to #1 seed and eventual tournament winner Liberty in the first round by 10 points. The Owls did luck out, as Jacksonville couldn't face the Owls in the tournament play-in game due to the pandemic, which means we played Liberty fresh instead of on a disadvantaged back to back.

Looking ahead, the biggest name to come back is senior Spencer Rodgers, a JUCO transfer who played his freshman year at Troy under KSU associate head coach Ben Fletcher. He averaged 16 points per game last season for KSU and is the #1 guy on opposing teams scouting reports due to his ability to shoot from outside with a quick release. I truly believe he was more up and down than he should have been late in the season, due to high usage. His already high percentages can take a step up if he's given more support.

Another returning player that I think deserves watching is junior Terrell Burden. A diminutive guard from Campbell HS in Cobb County. One of the two freshmen that AAR brought in for 2019-20, Burden struggled through much of his first two seasons, including a season ending lower body injury as a freshman. Burden showed his potential in the final few weeks of his sophomore season, as he still tried to round into form through most of the season. In the final two games of the season, Burden played season highs in minutes and scored season highs in points in both games as well, on 20/29 shooting overall. Burden is a hard worker and should benefit from a strong end to the season, and a full offseason. He needs to continue to use his quickness and finish against taller players inside, which he started to do. I would also like the see him work on his outside shot, to at least become something opponents need to respect. Former KSU guard Yonel Brown, also a small guard, took a similar path his sophomore year with lots of ups and downs, before becoming a leader and star as a junior and senior.

Also returning are sophomores Chris Youngblood, Brandon Stroud, and Kasen Jennings. Three guys who committed to KSU, and all knew each other growing up. Stroud and Youngblood were high school teammates at East Coweta High School.

Youngblood got the most hype of the bunch as scouting services rated him as the best prospect KSU Basketball has ever gotten out of high school. Every service gave him 3 stars, with some teetering him on 4 stars. He's a 6'5" SF type with a chiseled body beyond his years. He averaged 12.4 points per game but was forced into heavy minutes as a true freshman and had to pick up the scoring burden a year before he was probably truly ready. His three point shot was very hot and cold, so I'd like to see a little more consistency there. I'd also like to see him take the ball more to the basket and use his strength and athleticism to draw fouls at the hoop.

Stroud is a lanky 6'8"-ish combo forward, who was a 3 star prospect. He often found himself in foul trouble, and again, probably played more minutes than he was ready for as a true freshman. Stroud profiles as a matchup nightmare type player, who can lock up on D. He has just as high of a ceiling as Youngblood, if not higher, but came out of high school not as far along. He oozes potential, but really needs to tighten up his overall game, and have the game slow down for him. Assuming he develops his skills and gets stronger, Stroud is that guy who could absolutely frustrate opposing teams on the boards and on defense.

Youngblood and Stroud both have highly visible all-conference potential.

Another of the super sophomores is Kasen Jennings. Not quite as highly touted as Youngblood or Stroud out of high school, but still ranked around 3 Stars, Jennings is a big point guard, who can handle the rock well for his size. He's a smooth player, and showed flashes, but most of his freshman year was probably more struggle than success. He needs to stay confident and trust the plan. With more overall depth this year, he's going to have to play better and earn his minutes.

Also returning for his senior season is 6'7" 218 JUCO transfer Alex Peterson, who goes by the nickname Boogie. Peterson was brought in as an immediate contributor for Amir Abdur-Rahim. He has more of an energizer bunny type game, but sometimes lacks the size to battle the big boys inside. He doesn't have much of a perimeter game, so my best guess is backup center this season.

Junior Armani Harris, who goes by the nickname Melo, is also returning. The Atlanta area native was one of AAR's original two high school guys alongside Terrell Burden. Harris is high effort player, often prone to foul trouble. He's probably more around 6'5" to 6'6" with a medium frame, but lacks the plus athleticism and a true perimeter skills set. He struggles inside with bigger players at times and needs to get stronger to bang around in there without fouling. Now that he's healthy, I want to see how he's developed his game, but I'm not sure where I see Harris fitting in this year.

Also returning is 6'10" 215 big man Nate Springs, a transfer from Ohio University. Springs averaged just 2 points and 2 rebounds last year, in minimal minutes. He has a smaller frame for a big man and is more of a perimeter player. His value is knocking down the three point shot, which was something he struggled with most of last year. He's not a natural shot blocker or rebounder and isn't the most laterally gifted defensively. I need to see how Springs improved his game, but I'm not sure about his role this year. As I mentioned, his value will be in his ability to space the floor and natural length.

Also returning is power forward Cole LaRue, who will be a sophomore this season. Like Springs, his value is in spacing the floor, which is something he struggled with last season. I think he has a base skillset that he can greatly improve on, and can be a solid contributor, but he will have to develop his midrange and three point shooting that for whatever reason didn’t translate from the high school level. He must also overcome his lack of athleticism and strength. I'm thinking that LaRue is a guy who may contribute more as a junior and senior, but I'm not ruling him out this season if he can develop a strong midrange or perimeter game.

Finally, coming back is sophomore Mayson Quartlebaum, son of Fred Quartlebaum who is a member of the staff at Kansas. He was listed last season at 6'6" 240, and I don't think he was close to being in D1 shape and it hurt his game and his minutes. I believe I saw somewhere he's in much better shape. I didn't see him play much, but my gut says he'll be better with one more year on the sidelines to learn.

On to the newcomers. The Owls cleared out two scholarship players last season, and had a free scholarship to give as well. AAR knows it's time for business this season and brought in 3 veteran transfers, two with D1 experience and a graduate transfer from the D2 ranks. There are ZERO freshmen on this year's team.

First off is D1 Murray State transfer Demond Robinson. Mondo is a 6'8" 265 F/C who gives KSU that big body that was lacking last season. I believe he could be the most important of the new players and should be starting from Day 1 in the middle. He averaged 7 and 5 with a block last year for the Racers. He doesn't appear to be a scorer, but it looks like he can put it back inside at a nice clip. He adds size that this team didn’t have last year, which could flip close games in our favor without showing up in a box score.

Second off is another D1 transfer, who was picked up off the transfer portal late. Jamir Moultrie is a 5'11" well-traveled senior guard. He only played in 11 games last season but averaged four three point attempts per game and hit 41%. I don't see Moultrie starting (it's definitely possible, though), but I see him more as a microwave off the bench.

Finally, D2 transfer Isaiah Reddish of Barton College in NC. The 6'5" 200 pound senior will likely play right away. He put up strong averages with 21+ ppg these past two seasons. The concern for Reddish is that D2 moved the three point line back last season, and with a very small sample size, he went from 16/41 to 5/24. He is also a good rebounder and averaged nearly ten per game. Barton College is in a poor D2 league, but his numbers are still very good, and former Lipscomb guard Romeao Ferguson had great success as a grad transfer last season from that league.

Also available for the rotation are preferred walk-ons, Demetrius Rives and Kenny Burns.

My prediction:

G: Burden
G: Rodgers
F: Youngblood
F: Stroud
C: Robinson

Top bench: Moultrie, Peterson, Reddish, Jennings

Coaching:

Returning for third years with AAR are associate HC Ben Fletcher as well as third assistant Pershin Williams. Second assistant Tanner Smith recently left for a job at Stephen F. Austin, and is replaced by coaching veteran William Small who has a long relationship with Amir Abdur-Rahim. Smith did a fine job, but Small has experience at different levels of D1, and I definitely think adding his experience will help.

Conclusion:

As I mentioned earlier, I feel I was too tough on the staff and players, in hindsight. Ten plus years of bad KSU basketball can lead to impatience. I always say give a coach 3 full years, and I am going to stick with that. AAR was dealt a poor hand in year 1 with a team that lacked talent and experience. In year 2, the pandemic hit, which hindered things. This is year 3 and every single player on the team is now 'his guy'. My biggest concern for this season is based on the past: AAR was dealt fairly tough hands the past two years, but I couldn't walk away from either year saying we met or exceeded the already low expectations. Long story short, we didn't turn chicken shit into anything close to chicken salad. I did see a decent bump in performance at the end of last season, so that is a positive. This is easily the most talented and experienced team in AAR's tenure, and he brought three veteran players in, two with successful D1 experience, and only lost two players who weren't even key contributors.

Credit to AAR, he clearly didn't lose the team and the guys are buying what he's selling. You don't have a 100% return rate (of AAR players) in today's transfer-friendly environment, if the kids don't buy in.

AAR has always been known as a recruiter, and now 2+ years later he has all the ingredients he needs. My question is this: Can he transform from the guy buying the fancy groceries at Whole Foods, into the Chef who puts together the entire meal?

I'm excited to see what this season brings: and by year's end, there's a good chance that we will know if AAR is closer to getting a big fat extension, or closer to becoming a lame duck.

My Expectations:

The coaches and media in the conference do not have much belief in us, with the coaches picking KSU 11th out of 12 (only to Central Arkansas), and the media says dead last out of 12 teams. I’ve titled this section “expectations”, instead of “predictions” because I feel like my predictions are just a giant jinx, and due to the lack of success over the past 10 years, it would be crazy to “predict” anything. I do think I have higher expectations than most, because I see the untapped potential on this team, and I see the schedule (below), and there are a lot more wins for the taking than you might think.

Over the past few days, I did some cursory research on all of the non-conference teams we are going to play. We will play four non-D1/D2 teams, we play four high majors as well as five mid-majors.

Let’s start with the easy wins. The four non-D1 wins should banked in the W column, even on a bad day. The only one scheduled that I think might put up any kind of fight would be Voorhees College. So basically, we are starting 4-0 with 25 left to play. That means for those casually looking at the schedule, we already have 1 less win than we had all of last year in the 24 games season, and we haven’t even played one game yet.

I did a little research on the high majors (HMs) that we will play, and we have lucked out BIG TIME. All of the HMs we play are picked to finish at best, bottom 3-4 in their respective conferences. Here they are in the order that they appear on our schedule.

• Iowa State is picked 10/10 in the Big 12 Coaches poll. They got 9 points in the voting (I didn’t even know you could get less than 10!). Top ranked Kansas got 80 points and the team above Iowa State got 22 points. Iowa State has a new coach, lost their top returning players, and are widely viewed as the worst of the high majors on our schedule. They have no players on the Big 12 preseason all-conference team or honorable mentions.
• Creighton lost pretty much all of their players and are in a dire rebuilding year. They are picked 8 of 11 in the Big East Coaches poll, which 37 points. That is below #1 Villanova (100 points) and #11 DePaul (10 points). They have no players on the preseason all-conference team, or any honorable mentions.
• Wake Forest is picked to finish 13/15 in the ACC Media poll, with 274 points. Top ranked Duke garnered 1,132 points and #15 Boston College is at 112. Another bottom 3 team. They have no players on the ACC preseason all-conference teams.
• Nebraska is picked 11/14 in the Big 10 Media poll. They got 105 points in the poll, 268 below top ranked Michigan. Nebraska got a good recruiting class and might be on the verge of next steps after a disastrous year, but there’s no guarantee. They have no players on the Big 10 preseason all-conference team.

As far as our mid-majors, in schedule order.

• Belmont is predicted first in the Ohio Valley, with 17 first place votes out of 20. They have two players on the all-conference preseason team.
• Charleston Southern is picked to finish 11/12 in the Big South with 47 points, edging out the abysmal USC Upstate by 6 points. For comparison, the top two teams are Winthrop (152 points) and Campbell (148 points). They have no players on preseason all-conference teams.
• Mercer is picked to finish fourth in both the Southern Conference Coaches and Media polls and got some #1 votes. They have two players on the conference preseason team.
• Wofford is picked to finish 5th in the coaches poll and 3rd in the media poll in the Southern Conference. They received one first place vote in the media poll. They have no members of the preseason all-conference team.
• Samford loses many key players this year. There’s no guarantees there. They are picked 8/10 in the Southern Conference Coaches poll and 9/10 in the Media Poll. They have no players on the conference preseason team.

We open with Iowa State on Tuesday and on paper you’d think it’s a loss (I did too, until I did my research). I am telling you right now, that game is ripe for a KSU upset, if we come out swinging. New KSU assistant William Small coached at Iowa State last season, so he has a familiarity with some of the roster and even one or two of the freshman from recruitment. Getting a win over a Big 12 school, would give this KSU team so much confidence going forward.

Iowa State is our best chance to get our first HM win in over a decade, because we have the element of surprise. And like I said earlier, there’s nothing special about the other HM teams, so we might have a puncher’s chance on a good day.

We should expect to beat Charleston Southern and Samford. Belmont might be the overall best team on our schedule, period. I don’t expect a win there, but if we can steal one from Mercer or Wofford, then going into conference with a winning record isn’t far-fetched.

During non-conference I want this team to want to find an identity, rhythm, and clearly define the roles. The Owls of November may be 180 degrees from the Owls of January. Of course you want to win these games because it looks great for the program, helps morale, recruiting, and is a solid indicator of future conference success.

Conference-wise the Atlantic Sun (sic) is much bigger this season after adding EKU, JSU, and Central Arkansas. In fact, the conference is now so big that it's split into geographic divisions and we only play each of the new teams once, along with single games vs. North Alabama, Lipscomb, and Bellarmine. Of course it looks like JSU and others could be on the way out very shortly, but for this season, it's bigger than it's been in a while.

We have never had a winning overall record OR a winning conference record at the Division I level, and I want both this season.

The absolute minimum regular season that I expect this year, given all the talent is 16-14 overall, with at least 9-7 in conference for the regular season. Note that every team makes the postseason tournament, so I added a 30th game into the overall record above. Of course, I am flexible, and if we won just 5 conference games but won the conference tournament, and went dancing, who would complain?

I hate putting a ceiling on a team, but my realistic top end expectations would probably be 18-20 wins. We have just as much (if not more) talent as the rest of the ASUN, so why not? Remember, we get four free wins vs. the non-D1s.

It's simple: Develop the talent, get them to play as a cohesive unit, and win games. If the Braves can win a World Series, why can't KSU win the Atlantic Sun? Don’t misunderstand me, I’m not predicting that we win the conference, but I am sick of having low expectations for this team and it’s time to win, NOW.

In this blog post I have admittedly been more optimistic than most KSU fans probably would be, because I want to believe in the team and the process. I am sick of being the guy setting low expectations because we are KSU and have no D1 track record (even if I end up being proven right, year after year). With that said, I promise you guys that I am not going to dumb down whatever this season's outcome is by comparing it to last year's total of 5 wins. For example, if we get 10 wins this year, you won't be seeing me spin it, and saying ‘hooray, we doubled our wins!’ This is the year, this is the team, this is the time, let's do it!

The end.