So I try to stay pretty even-keeled when it comes to KSU Basketball and even lean heavily on the pessimistic side. I've been hearing about how things are "going to be different" for the past 10+ years since Tony Ingle left.
I saw some signs of improvement late last year when it came to overall consistency through 40 minutes, to the point I thought we'd have a puncher's chance of doing some damage in the ASUN tournament, but it sort of felt artificial and that we weren't there yet. It sort of felt like it would take some real luck or some big individual games to really get anywhere. I have developed a fool me once, fool me twice mentality with this program. As somebody who bought into and believed in former Head Coach Lewis Preston (who failed miserably here), I have been scared to jump in head first. Even last year I got optimistic and expected 16 to 19 wins, which many said was too many (and they were right).
For better or worse people read my Tweets for KSU updates and I don't want to get KSU fans too excited and blow smoke up their asses. I don't want to "cry wolf" again. I've done it before and it serves no purpose to hype something up that is going to fail because the next time something actually deserves hype, people are fatigued by it. To use yet another tired cliche, I needed to stick my toe in the water before getting in the deep end.
The first month of this season, I saw some of the same things as last season that haunted us and I got this really bad feeling that things were going to spin out into mediocrity. While it still felt better than last season, there was some inconsistent effort and an inability to keep and hold leads, etc. While we were winning some of those games (which was an improvement in itself), it didn't send that strong signal to me that we are going to take it to another level.
Even early on in the season opener I saw undisciplined play in the first half of the first game. Guys who came out in Game 1 who were not mentally prepared and not executing the game plan vs. a Cupcake opponents. Guys were jacking up threes who shouldn't be shooting them, and trying to make highlights when they should have been moving the ball. I was again very discouraged.
The fluctuation in non-conference strength of schedule combined with so many games on the road, made it hard to truly evaluate things. When we played Indiana and VCU they were without some of their best players and both teams missing their star point guards. It was very positive that we were hanging around in both games and really almost beat VCU, but again I couldn't commit to these games being more than solid efforts and playing hard on the road against undermanned teams missing their best players.
Now in conference play we are sitting at 5-1, and it took an average player turning into Steph Curry for one night in order to beat us on the road. He hit ten three point shots, and many of them difficult.
Playing against teams on our level and teams that I am more familiar with, it's become easier to evaluate "our guys" vs. "their guys" and "our guys" have consistently been better. Keep in mind, the goal is to win the ASUN not win the Big Ten.
So far I have seen the following things...
An increase in skill level across the board 1-5 & an improved ability to put the ball in the basket at every level - post, mid, and distance. The shot takers of last season have became shot makers this season. If you look at the three point shooting percentages across the board, they have gone up considerably. Youngblood, Stroud, Jennings, Burden etc. Even backups like Cottle and Ademokoya are hitting at high clips. Almost every player we put out there 1-4 is comfortable either putting the ball on the floor and trying create or they can pull a three pointer.
It is very hard to guard an unselfish team that has scoring balance and shot makers. The ball movement and efficiency have been much better over the past month. Honestly I was really not happy with the offense at all at times, in fact I thought it was flat out bad in certain games. Defensively, some games were better than others, but I always felt that the defense was going to be ahead of the offense and now we lead the ASUN in assists per game in conference play.
I think the preparation and in-game coaching has been much much better this season. It's easy to forget that AAR is/was a young coach and just like with young players, there is a coaching learning curve too. It's something I am very guilty of overlooking myself, and in hindsight deserved more attention. To AAR's credit, in the days of the transfer portal and instant gratification, he kept the core group together. I also think the addition of assistant coach William Small was a big help.
I see a huge but gradual improvement from late last season into this season in the ability to keep and grow and leads.
This team comes out of halftime with a point to prove, which was the complete opposite of last year.
We don't always get a complete 40 minutes from this team, but they play hard more often than not & have the talent to overcome some lapses.
There have been only 2 games missed all year due to injury from a rotational player. This team is healthier than most in the country.
UNF Coach Matthew Driscoll said that KSU is the 57th oldest team in the country. Where he got that number I don't know, but there is something to be said for older teams. The continuity, maturity, and increased skill level of the older players gives veteran teams a greater chance for success at our level and a greater chance to pull upsets in March. Look at Mercer beating Duke in 2014. Mercer was a team that consisted of basically 4th and 5th year guys that knew how to play together.
Every KSU conference game I've watched, even the loss, I see some level of consistency. This is a team that doesn't rely on 1-2 players to carry the load offensively which makes it difficult to guard. The +athleticism and +length for a low-major, especially with Brandon Stroud at the head of it all on defense, makes it a grind for opposing teams and wears them down.
We play with a 9 man rotation and don't have a big drop off anywhere which is pretty great. Knowing you play hard and do your job, and you'll be able to get a rest, is very very overlooked.
The one area that I am concerned with is big man depth. While I acknowledge that it's not easy to find skilled bigs at our level, I think we've completely whiffed here more than a few times in recruiting and if we do have a downfall in the postseason this will be it. Robinson and Peterson are perfectly fine in the ASUN, but looking ahead if we win the conference, that will be the area that a 3 or 4 seed would look to exploit us in in the tournament. Robinson only plays in spurts which I am guessing is due to conditioning, which means that no matter if he's in foul trouble or not, Peterson or LaRue are going to get playing time for at least 15-20 a game.
I predicted before last weekend that Stetson and FGCU win both games this weekend. I no longer think that will be the case after seeing the games against JU and UNF. I think we will at least split, especially because FGCU's best player didn't play last weekend and his status is unknown at this point for Saturday and I have a natural distrust of Stetson ever been good at anything.
What I can say is that come playoff time we will be on the top of the list of teams that nobody in the league will want to get matched up with, especially if it's at the Convocation Center.
